Thumbs up or thumbs down for D-I teams at halfway point

September 27, 2011 by Les Willsey, AZPreps365


It's the halfway point for prep football teams and there remains a September game before October and cooler weather (hopefully) arrives.

No matter the calender. It's time for a midseason assessment -- thumbs up or thumbs down -- for the top contenders and their pursuit of Division I playoff berths

If the playoffs began today, the 16-team field would be Hamilton, Basha, Desert Vista, Brophy, Pinnacle, Chandler, Cibola, Desert Ridge, Boulder Creek, Corona del Sol, Westview, Dobson, Gilbert, Tucson, North Canyon and Valley Vista. The nine automatic berth teams would all be among the top 16, so noone is bucking the system. Eight schools that competed in 5A-I or 5A-II last year, made the playoff and are in Division I  this year would not qualify -- Mesquite, Red Mountain, Sunnyside (5A-II), Mesa Mountain View, St. Mary's,, Mountain Pointe, Mountain Ridge and Westwood.

Here goes with the forecast of how teams rest come late October, lumping the contenders by record to date:

The 5-0 bunch: Basha, Brophy, Cibola, Desert Vista, Hamilton and Pinnacle. Basha-- Thumbs up. The Bears are looking at no worse than 8-2 with itheir two toughest games left against Desert Ridge and Hamilton. Brophy -- Thumbs up. The Broncos may run the table, 9-1 at worst. Mountain Pointe (this week) and Westview next month are the testers. Cibola -- Thumbs up. The Raiders only stumbling blocks are Corona del Sol this week and Sunnyside the first week of October. Probably good enough to earn one of three automatic berths in Section I. Desert Vista --  Thumbs up. One marquee win so far and convincing triumphs every week. Saguaro, Hamilton and Chandler are three good tests. A 9-1 Thunder finish is doable. Hamilton -- Thumbs up. Despite moving out of the Fiesta Region meatgrinder, the Huskies have a tough slate. Chandler, Desert Vista and Basha loom in the second half and four of their five toughest games are on the road (Desert Ridge (win), Chandler, Desert Vista and Basha). Might, might go 9-1. 10-0 if you don;t like bucking the odds. Automatic Section II berth. Pinnacle -- Thumbs up. The second half is going to be harder. The Pioneers have their work cut out for them against Brophy and Boulder Creek. This week's game vs. Mesa Mountain View is the key. An 8-2 finish could lock up and automatic Section III berth. 7-3 likely not with Boulder Creek, Brophy and Desert Vista in the section.

The 4-1 conglomerate:  Boulder Creek, Chandler, Desert Ridge, Valley Vista and Westview. Boulder Creek -- Thumbs up. Only see one trouble spot the rest of the way for the Jaguars. The last week against Desert Ridge. 8-2 finish. Played a decent game against Brophy earlier in its only loss. Still has a shot Section III auto berth, but likely won't need it. Chandler -- Thumbs up. The Wolves could finish as high as 9-1, no worse than 7-3. Hamilton (this week) and Desert Vista in the finale are keys to automatic Section II berth or scramble for at-large spot. Defense must show up in both contests. Desert Ridge -- Thumbs up. Pivotal games the second half are Red Mountain, Basha and Boulder Creek. 8-2 finish at worst. Like the Jags for an automatic Section II berth. Valley Vista -- Thumbs up (barely). Thanks to Section I placement an 8-2 finish is likely along with a Section I auto berths. Quick playoff exit.  Westview -- Thumbs up. The Knights are a solid choice to finish no worse than 8-2 and gain a Section I aut berth. Clearly the best team in Section I.

The 3-2 stampede: Alhambra, Corona del Sol, Dobson, Gilbert, Mesa Mountain View, North Canyon, Red Mountain,  Sunnyside and Tucson High. Alhambra, Corona, Dobson, Gilbert, Mountain View -- All thumbs down. Alhambra has a big game this week with Valley Vista, but strength of schedule is a problem for the Lions, even if they finish 7-3. Corona del Sol faces the toughest schedule of any team the second half. It started with Desert Vista last week and continues with five playoff contenders -- Cibola, Mountain Pointe, Chandler, Mesquite and Hamilton the rest of the way. Dobson has a similar stumbling block to Corona. Mesquite, Chandler, Hamilton and Desert Vista are its next four opponents. Gilbert might have a pulse, but would need to defeat one of Basha, Marcos de Niza and Chandler to fashion a 6-4 finish. Mountain View has tussles ahead with Pinnacle, Red Mountain and Mountain Pointe. Two wins among those three and taking care of business with Highland and Mesa, a 7-3 finish has promise. A 6-4 finish with an overall schedule lighter than heavier is a stretch for postseason. North Canyon -- Thumbs up. A pivoltal game with Desert Mountain this week and two very tough ones later with Boulder Creek and Desert Ridge. Would 6-4 be good enough to qualify? Tough call.  Red Mountain -- Thumbs up. The Mountain Lions have a better shot at 7-3 than Mountain View. If they go 6-4, it's a better 6-4 because of games with Desert Ridge, Brophy, Westview. Lose to Mountain View in two weeks, that changes things. Sunnyside -- Thumbs up. Sunnyside could run the table the second half. Its toughest remaining games are Cibola and Tucson High. An 8-2 finish should land a playoff berth. A 7-3 or 6-4 mark is iffy, with a slate lacking the quality needed playing so many lower division Tucson schools and no big time D-I contenders. Tucson -- Thumbs up. Key games are Marana Mountain View this week and later Canyon del Oro and Sunnyside. LIke Sunnyside, 8-2 is a winner, 7-3 fairly solid and 6-4 very marginal. 

The 2-3's with a shot: Mountain Pointe -- Thumbs up. The Pride is good enough to run the table and go 7-3, which gets them in. A 6-4 finish is tougher to qualify. The Pride's tilt with Brophy this Friday should be the difference between 7-3 and 6-4. The Pride at 6-4 (that would mean losses to Chandler, Hamilton, Desert Vista and Brophy) is a powerful set of losses. Mountain Pointe's schedule, unlike many teams, was front-loaded. Mesquite -- Thumbs down. The loss that may haunt Mesquite in the end is to Gilbert two weeks ago.  With games remaining against Chaparral and Desert Vista, 5-5 may be the best the Wildcats can do. That won't be good enough.